“In general, Brazilians are not very happy with this competition,” says pollster Felipe Nunes ahead of the October 4 presidential first round. With voters again facing a choice between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on the left and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on the right, the Quaest CEO talks to AS/COA’s Luisa Leme about how an increasingly informed electorate worries over recurrent pocketbook issues and a sweeping corruption crisis that has ensnared figures across the political spectrum. The conversation covers Lula’s struggles to sell voters on affordability and Bolsonaro’s efforts to moderate the firebrand style of his father, jailed ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, as both candidates try win over independents independents without alienating their bases. What will be the decisive factor in the race, per Nunes? Voter turnout. “If we see a 50-50 vote intention in the second round, what will make the difference is if you guarantee that your voters will be able to show up,” he said.
“In general, Brazilians are not very happy with this competition,” says pollster Felipe Nunes ahead of the October 4 presidential first round. With voters again facing a choice between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on the left and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on the right, the Quaest CEO talks to AS/COA’s Luisa Leme about how an increasingly informed electorate worries over recurrent pocketbook issues and a sweeping corruption crisis that has ensnared figures across the political spectrum.
The conversation covers Lula’s struggles to sell voters on affordability and Bolsonaro’s efforts to moderate the firebrand style of his father, jailed ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, as both candidates try win over independents without alienating their bases.
What will be the decisive factor in the race, per Nunes? Voter turnout. “If we see a 50-50 vote intention in the second round, what will make the difference is if you guarantee that your voters will be able to show up,” he said.
This episode was produced by Executive Producer Luisa Leme with support from Associate Producer Khalea Robertson. Carin Zissis is your host.
Stay up to date with AS/COA Online’s ongoing coverage of Brazil’s 2026 elections, https://www.as-coa.org/content/guide-2026-brazilian-elections including our poll tracker that features Quaest surveys. https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-brazils-2026-presidential-election
And listen to our previous episodes with Felipe Nunes on the key issues that drove the 2022 election and that year’s Lula–Bolsonaro runoff.
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The music in the podcast is Paulo Bellinati's "Baião de gude” performed by Newman Oltman Guitar Duo and João Luiz for Americas Society. Find out about upcoming concerts at musicoftheamericas.org. Share your love for Latin America: Join Americas Society.